Raila knows he can’t be president after the thrashing he has received at the ballot – whether through an appeal or any other imagination. The question then is; why is Raila being adamant against conceding he has lost? Well; it is all about RAW POLITICS.
Raila is not sad that Luos are being killed in Kisumu, Kondele or Mathare. According to Raw Politics Raila actually sees this as positive; these deaths are bargaining chips! This is why Raila is quite happy to exaggerate the numbers. It is all about gaining sympathy votes. The deaths of especially women and children add even more value to this agenda.
The ultimate objective of all these can only be understood in the context of investment opportunities. To Raila politics is about making money.
Over the years Raila has turned his politics into investment opportunities – for himself and for others like the great political broker Jimi Wanjigi. He is also able to attract investments from people like George Soros as well as political brokers from Germany and France.
Raila made his personal money during ODM nominations after selling nominations to people like Joho, Kidero and a host of other governors for billions a pop.
However his investors – people like Jimi, Soros and others – expected him to either win; or at the very least cause enough disruption in Kenya that Uhuru would be forced to negotiate with him for peace. Getting here is a 2-step process; (1) cause chaos and play victim to develop bargaining chips. (2) Negotiate for posts in governance.
Now Raila is stuck. The routing he got at the ballot means he has not be able to achieve the first step effectively; and every day since the announcement of Uhuru’s won makes it even harder to do.
However Jimi Wanjigi & Co are busy demanding for their pound of flesh. They want him to get the power to nominate their preferred heads of select parastatals, government bodies like KEMRI, and ministries. Failure to which they will expose their agreements with Raila which will destroy his local and international standing.
Raila is at a cross-roads. He knows he cannot deliver on his promise of causing chaos to negotiate, but he is scared of displeasing his investors.
What would you advise him to do?