Step One: Form a shadow government using humanitarian aid as cover (AFRICOG & KHRC).

Step Two: Control the airwaves. Fund existing radio and TV outlets and take control over them or start your own outlets.

Step Three: Destabilize the state, weaken the government and build an anti-government kind of feeling in the country. You exploit an economic crisis or take advantage of an existing crisis — pressure from the top and the bottom. This will allow you to weaken the government and build anti-government public sentiment.

Step Four: Sow unrest.

Step Five: Provoke an election crisis. You wait for an election and during the election, you cry voter fraud.

Step Six: Take power. You stage massive demonstrations, civil disobedience, sit-ins, general strikes and you encourage activism. You promote voter fraud and tell followers what to do through your radio and television stations. Incitement and violence are conducted at this stage.

Step Seven: Outlast your opponent.



6.7 million Kenyans are very interesting people.

Before buying or leasing a Car, they do thorough checks. They check engine, lights, shocks etc before committing themselves.
Before buying or renting a house, they check structure, foundation, finishing etc.

 Before buying a phone, they test key Apps, and go for reliability and brand. But when it comes to choosing a President, they do no background checks. They don’t check reliability. They use emotions and hate of the competition ( especially Kikuyus) as yardstick.

 That this how they get it wrong. If they just took time to see how their candidate runs issues in ODM, and assessed the corruption and dictatorship in Luo Nyanza, they would have sensed something fishy.
If they looked at past history of shambolic and silly planning ever since 1982, they would have sensed something fishy.

If they did background checks on association with mega corruption barons, they would have sensed something fishy. Now, they are all over crying, threatening, throwing tantrums after a very predictable loss. You really wonder how anyone would have expected a different result.

My plea, is that the 6.7 million Kenyans direct questions to the old man taking them for a ride. They should spare the silent majority that has moved on. They should ask why the old man lied to them about Hacking, only to be shamed by IT experts. They should ask what happened to systems of protecting votes, and securing the Forms 34A at all the 40,800 polling stations. They should ask hard questions to the old man. After getting closure, they should join the nearly 8.5 million Kenyans who have chosen the path of peace, development and progress under Dr Uhuru Kenyatta and Dr William Ruto.

Wawache kutusumbua Sumbua, eti major announcement, major exposé, Mungiki, major plan B etc.
Tume Choka!!!




Raila knows he can’t be president after the thrashing he has received at the ballot – whether through an appeal or any other imagination. The question then is; why is Raila being adamant against conceding he has lost? Well; it is all about RAW POLITICS.

Raila is not sad that Luos are being killed in Kisumu, Kondele or Mathare. According to Raw Politics Raila actually sees this as positive; these deaths are bargaining chips! This is why Raila is quite happy to exaggerate the numbers. It is all about gaining sympathy votes. The deaths of especially women and children add even more value to this agenda.

The ultimate objective of all these can only be understood in the context of investment opportunities. To Raila politics is about making money.

Over the years Raila has turned his politics into investment opportunities – for himself and for others like the great political broker Jimi Wanjigi. He is also able to attract investments from people like George Soros as well as political brokers from Germany and France.

Raila made his personal money during ODM nominations after selling nominations to people like Joho, Kidero and a host of other governors for billions a pop.

However his investors – people like Jimi, Soros and others – expected him to either win; or at the very least cause enough disruption in Kenya that Uhuru would be forced to negotiate with him for peace. Getting here is a 2-step process; (1) cause chaos and play victim to develop bargaining chips. (2) Negotiate for posts in governance.

Now Raila is stuck. The routing he got at the ballot means he has not be able to achieve the first step effectively; and every day since the announcement of Uhuru’s won makes it even harder to do.

However Jimi Wanjigi & Co are busy demanding for their pound of flesh. They want him to get the power to nominate their preferred heads of select parastatals, government bodies like KEMRI, and ministries. Failure to which they will expose their agreements with Raila which will destroy his local and international standing.

Raila is at a cross-roads. He knows he cannot deliver on his promise of causing chaos to negotiate, but he is scared of displeasing his investors.

What would you advise him to do?


IF you blindfolded President Uhuru Kenyatta airlifted him, dropped him at any point of your wish within the map of Kenya then unfolded him and told him where he is, he would look around and point out to you a national government project already being carried out or being funded by his government just 1km away. He would even likely take you there to see and touch it.
I have noticed this whenever he stops in every market or trading centre from Kiambu to Meru, Mombasa to Bungoma….Ukambani….Nyanza…name it.

Now I want you to be very very fair and honest to yourself and to me and tell me that all these projects he talks about do not exist on the ground.


In a Whatsapp conversation, NASA distinguished leaders lament about the slow NASA Campaigns. One of the member, an insider for the Presidential campaign team, claims that NASA cannot  mount a serious campaign because they dont have resources.

He further claims that Kidero, Joho and Oparanya have been the main financiers who seems to be giving up. It is also claimed that Kalonzo’s money paid to his through Kalonzo Musyoka foundation has been frozen. It also states states that Raila is frustrated by his Nigerian and Mexican friends whom don’t seem to be interested in financing his campaigns this year. They believe he should retire!

Mudavadi on the other hand is ‘Mkono Ngumu’. He claims this is not his campaign and hence his role is to offer technical advice. Is NASA broke? That is the question in every political commentators lip. This comes a few hours after Uhuru held a 2 hour dinner that saw his fund-raise close to 1 Billion shillings in 120 Minutes!

Are donors no longer interested in a Raila Presidency! Time will tell!






Prof. Mutahi Ngunyi

Raila is beating the drums of war. Let me explain. For starters, he has told us that the government will rig this election. And that IEBC is the government and the government is IEBC. But this does not worry me.

What worries me are two pointers to the ‘coming war’. One, Raila has told us that if he loses, he will not go to court. He will go direct to the court of public opinion. And the people will decide whether the election was stolen or not.

If they decide that the election was stolen (which they will do anyway) then Raila will be declared the ‘People’s President’. Following this declaration, they will use the First Article of the constitution that states “…all sovereign power rests with the people”.

On the basis of this Article, they will then swear him in. And should this happen, it will be a declaration of war. Two, Raila has insisted on having a parallel tallying system. And the question I ask on this is the following: Will he use this system to declare Uhuru Kenyatta the winner? The answer is zero! He has put up this system to declare himself the winner, whether he wins or not.

The point here is simple: Raila is not interested in the election. He has the results already “cooked” in his tallying centre. And he can announce them tomorrow if he wants to. To him, he won the election the day he was declared the National Super Alliance (Nasa) candidate.

August 8 is just an annoying event. But there is one more thing. He has already told us how many votes he will garner. He calls this the “10 Million Strong Campaign”. His parallel tallying centre has therefore been programmed to ‘cook’ a figure close to 10 million votes. And since he has conditioned our minds to believe his political ‘lies’, we will entertain this ‘cooked’ figure.

What the country has not done, though, is to interrogate Raila’s “Tyranny of Lies”. Let me begin with the “10 Million Strong” Lie. I must admit that it is clever. And the idea is to ‘normalise’ the rigging lie, the lie about the tallying centre and the lie about the “People’s President”. If this fake president is elected by 10 million people, he will be presumed legitimate!

The “Tyranny of Lies” will have won the election. But to break down the “10 Million” lie, I took time off to study five elections. I examined the elections from 1992 to 2013. And I have the following submissions to make.

One, Kenyans vote along ethnic lines. There is no point cheating ourselves. In the 2013 election, 95 per cent of the Luo Nation voted for Raila; and 91 per cent of Gema voted for Uhuru. This is a statistical fact.

Two, it is difficult to explain the Luhya Nation using science. Their voting patterns are not predictable. As such, they are not ‘bankable’ until you lock them in the ‘bank’. Take 2002 for instance, because the Luo Nation did not have a stake in the Kibaki coalition, their turnout dropped to a record low of 53 per cent.

However, the turnout drop for the Luhya Nation was worse. Although they had Kijana Wamalwa as Mzee Kibaki’s running mate, they did not care. Their turnout dropped from 68.2 per cent to 39 per cent in the 2002 election.

If they did this at a time when their candidate was running mate, how will they behave if their stake in Nasa is zero? We will discuss this scientific puzzle of the Luhya Nation another day!

Now I must return to the “10 Million” lie of Nasa. If you take the last five elections as case studies, we must conclude that the average voter turnout will be 69 per cent or more. The IEBC register shows that there are 5.58 million Gema votes; and 2.32 million Kalenjin votes. This gives Jubilee a total of 7.9 million votes, if ethnic voting is a fact.

The three communities of Nasa include 2.22 million Luo voters, 2.13 million Kamba voters and 2.56 million Luhya voters. This adds up to 6.9 million votes.

Put differently, Jubilee is starting this campaign with 7.9 million votes in the bag and Nasa’s bag has 6.9 million votes. And you can counter-check this with the IEBC register and the National Census for credibility of my figures.

If voter turnout is 69 per cent, generated as an average from the last five elections, these numbers are bound to change. Jubilee’s actual votes fall from 7.9 million to 5.96 million and those of Nasa fall from 6.9 million to 4.5 million. And this is because of an average voter turnout of 69 per cent generated from five elections. If this average is acceptable, therefore, and Nasa is starting its campaign at 4.5 million votes, how do they jump to “10 Million Strong”?

And how do they get there with voter apathy in Ukambani and Luhya country? To do so, there has to be two extremes. One, Raila has to convince all the Gema voters to follow him to Kibera. If he can do this, he will add 4.1 million votes to his 4.5 million votes.

This will only add up to 9.6 million votes. Two, Raila has to convince the entire country, including the entire William Ruto stronghold and bwana Ruto himself, to follow him to Kibera. This must be done in two months.

If he does it, he will add 4.9 million to his votes. This will give him 9.4 million votes. What is my point here? Raila’s base is worth 4.5 million votes only. This has potential to grow to 6 million votes.

But if it grows to 9 million, let alone 10 million, then his tallying station will have ‘cooked’ the figures. This will mean that the entire Gema nation voted for him or the entire country, including William Ruto, abandoned Gema and voted for Raila. And this is why Raila is a master of ‘Tyranny of Lies”. But now you must allow me to show a little kindness to Raila.

All he wants is to get into government as President or Prime Minister. And in my considered opinion, he will force his way in. I will not be surprised if we swear him in as Prime Minster in October. But I could also be wrong. Maybe Kalonzo Musyoka will betray him and become Prime Minister instead! This election is downright complex! Prof Mutahi Ngunyi is the Principal Fellow at The Consulting House and is associated with the Fort Hall School of Government, a college registered in Kenya



  1. Jimmy Wanjigi aka ‘James Bond’ also known as the ‘Kikuyu Broker’ advised Raila Odinga of a way to make Jubilee unpopular.
  2. They organized a cartel of unscrupulous businessmen to buy all the maize in the strategic grain reserves to ensure a shortage was created.
  3. They introduced the #UngaRevolution campaign to create a revolt against the Government. This campaign was to last 30 days.
  4. After 30 days they were going to organize a public call for public support – a #KenyansForKenya campaign – to get maize for starving Kenyans. They were then going to release the maize they were holding to Kenyans at 99/-.

 Wanjigi Maize.jpgThe Government disorganized them by procuring and subsidizing Unga for 90/-. Can they now release the maize they are hoarding?